The working group set up by the Swedish government on March 16 to discuss the consequences of the changed security environment following the Russian aggression against Ukraine presented its final report today. It cautiously formulates a conclusion on possible NATO membership without making a clear recommendation.
It notes that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine shows the limits of NATO's commitments to non-members. The obligation to provide assistance according to Article 5 of the NATO treaty only applies to the member states - collective defense does not contain, according to the clear derivation, "no partner dimension". Politically, financially and militarily it is not realistic for Sweden to enter into bilateral defense alliances with mutual defense guarantees outside of the existing European and Euro-Atlantic structures. It is also clear that the EU member states lack the political will to develop collective defense within the Union.
The report also states that Sweden's NATO membership would raise the threshold for military conflict, thus increasing deterrence. Membership of both Sweden and Finland in NATO would contribute to the collective defense efforts of all Nordic and Baltic states, the paper said. In contrast, there is uncertainty in the current situation as to the form in which collective measures would be taken. Looking at the neighboring country, the report states that it is still of great value that Finland and Sweden react to the changed security environment in close cooperation.
The Swedish parliament will start debating the report on Monday. The Social Democrats leading a minority government plan to meet next Sunday, May 15th.
An der Arbeitsgruppe zur Erstellung des Berichtes nahmen alle im Riksdag vertretenen Parteien teil. Die Leitung hatte die Ministerin für Auswärtige Angelegenheiten, Anne Linde. Verteidigungsminister Peter Hultquist sagte beim heutigen Pressetermin: „Wenn Schweden sich dafür entscheidet, die NATO-Mitgliedschaft anzustreben, besteht das Risiko einer Reaktion Russlands. Ich möchte betonen, dass wir in einem solchen Fall auf jede Gegenreaktion vorbereitet sind.“
Yesterday, May 12, the vote of the Finnish President and Prime Minister for the country to join NATO became knownESUT reported.
NATO would gain powerful partners in Finland and Sweden, also in view of the increasing importance of the Arctic. On the other hand, she faces challenges. Because changes in the deterrence device will not fail to materialize. In addition to joint exercises, forward stationing would be a conceivable option. Conditions are also changing in the armaments industry.
In addition, there is the question of the alliance's obligation to provide assistance during the ratification processes of the individual member states. The alliance's collective defense clause can only apply after full incorporation. Croatia's President Zoran Milanović had already made his blockade public in April. Hungary is considered an uncertain candidate in Brussels.
During a visit by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to the two countries on May 11, the UK signed declarations of mutual protection with both Sweden and Finland. Washington has also issued a security guarantee for both countries during the ratification phase.
Hans Uwe Mergener
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