Long announced, on April 5th the Norwegian government presented a plan for the armed forces in the period 2025 - 2036. Oslo plans to double its military budget in the next 12 years. Expenditures will be increased by 600 billion Norwegian crowns (approx. 51.65 billion euros) and amount to the equivalent of 139 billion euros (1,624 billion Norwegian crowns) in the period 2035-2036. Norwegian defense now prioritizes four areas: improved situational awareness capabilities, a new surface fleet, strengthening air defense capabilities, and increasing the capacity and volume of the army and home guard.
The following points became known:
- Around 4,600 additional conscripts, 13,700 additional reservists and 4,600 additional civilian personnel
- Establishment of two new army brigades, one in Finnmark and another in the south of the country. The Norwegian army will now consist of three brigades
- Increase in the Home Guard from currently around 40,000 men to 45,000
- Investing in long-range precision firepower
- Additional combat vehicles
- Additional helicopters for the army and special forces
- Additional budget of 6.03 billion euros (70 billion Norwegian kroner) for spare parts, ammunition, materials, fuel
- Expansion of the air defense system (NASAMS – Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) and improvements to drone and missile defense
- Ground-based long-range air defense systems for protection against ballistic missiles
- Procurement of long-range drones, participation in satellite programs.
At its core is a significant investment in maritime capabilities. “Norway is a maritime nation with a strong maritime heritage. The government is committed to strengthening the navy with new frigates, submarines and other ships,” said Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, explaining this step.
- five frigates with helicopters, including an option for another ship
- at least one additional submarine, here too with the option of another unit - in addition to the U212CDs already under contract, which are being procured together with Germany
- Up to ten large and 18 smaller ones, a total of 28 new standardized ships. These include 12 new coast guard ships, six coastal and six ocean-going ships.
The five new frigates are to be procured, operated and maintained in a strategic partnership. With “a close ally,” the long-term plan says. If you follow the statements made when the program was published, submarine hunting could play a key role in their interpretation - without neglecting air defense capabilities too much.
No financial worries – worry about security
Given this ambitious plan, the leading defense houses in Oslo and elsewhere in Norway are likely to take action. All the more so since financing is obviously out of the question. Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum announcing the Norwegian Defense Plan: “Norway is in a unique position to take action. “Our model of securing income for society from our natural resources allows us to increase spending on national security without cutting people’s public services.” Unlike many of his counterparts, Vedum speaks well. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, with estimated assets of 1.4 trillion euros (17 trillion Norwegian kroner), is said to be the largest in the world. In this context, Reuters quotes the prime minister as saying: “Thanks to its sovereign wealth fund, Norway has access to the money it needs to finance increased defense spending without cutting hospitals or schools.”
The Norwegian government had previously declared that it would achieve NATO's two percent target by 2026. According to NATO figures, Norway spent 1.57 percent of its gross domestic product on defense in 2022. The defense boost is a response to the increasingly serious security situation in Norway.
The government plan must be approved by Parliament.
Who is the close ally?
The German marine industry should also be pleased by the focus on maritime capabilities. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems in particular can benefit from the introduction of one, possibly even two, additional U212CDs. In the project of an air defense frigate for the German Navy, the future frigate class F 127, the CEO of the Kiel shipbuilder, Oliver Burkhardt, saw another point of contact for cooperation with Norway in an interview with us. To what extent Norwegian and German ideas can be married is currently too early to obtain reliable assessments. Despite the partnership in submarine construction, Germany does not have to play the role of “a close ally”.
If the assumed focus on ASW/submarine hunting is correct, then all European shipbuilders actually have a good starting position. In the UK BAE with Type 26 and Type 31, the Dutch Damen (with the designs for its own navy, the ASW frigate for the navies of Belgium and the Netherlands, F 126 for the German Navy), Naval Group in France, the French -Italian joint project FREMM. The American-Italian cooperation on the Constellation class can be included in the consideration of possible candidates. It remains to be seen to what extent Navantia still has standing in Norway.
Beyond the large combat units and submarines, the market for the intended smaller units of the Navy as well as ships and boats for the Coast Guard is also strong.
Hans Uwe Mergener
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