Attacks in the Red Sea: Warning from the international coalition will have little impact on the Houthi rebels

Our prosperity is also defended at Bab-el-Mandeb.

Against the background of the Houthis' repeated attacks in the Red Sea with missiles, unmanned aircraft and small boats, the German Foreign Office issued a press release on the evening of January 3, 2024. It includes a joint statement from the governments of Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.

In it, the twelve states condemn the Houthis' attacks on free shipping in the Red Sea and call on them to stop the attacks and to release the ships and crews that are being held. The Houthi attacks are described as “illegal, unacceptable and deeply destabilizing.”

The declaration ends with the threat of reprisals from the Twelve. “If the Houthis continue to threaten lives, the global economy and the free movement of goods on the region’s central sea routes, they will bear responsibility for the consequences. We remain committed to the rules-based international order and are committed to holding malicious actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks.”

An der Erklärung vom 3. Januar 2024 fällt die Abstinenz der Bahamas, des Jemen, Liberias, Singapurs und Südkoreas als Signaturstaaten der Deklaration vom 19. Dezember 2023 auf, während Bahrein und Dänemark hinzukommen. Kopenhagen beabsichtigt die Entsendung einer Fregatte ins Rote Meer zur Teilnahme an der Operation Properity Guardian. Noch im Januar soll sich das Parlament damit befassen.

Comment. As in the case of the declaration of December 19, 2023 (ESUT reported) ist die Wirkung eines derartigen Schreibens fraglich. Eine Erläuterung, wie die Gemeinschaft der Zwölf gedenkt die Situation im Roten Meer zu stabilisieren, gar die Übergriffe eindämmen zu wollen, fehlt. Es erscheint zweifelhaft, dass sich die Huthi vor der Aussicht, in Verantwortung gezogen zu werden, beeindruckt zeigen werden. Sanaa wird die gefühlte Erfolglosigkeit der Bemühungen Washingtons, eine Operation zum Schutz der freien Schifffahrt zu lancieren, registriert haben. Von den sich bereit erklärenden Ländern ist nur das Vereinigte Königreich dem US Aufruf gefolgt und stellt ein Kriegsschiff, „….so dass Washington praktisch allein gegen die Ansarullah vorgehen muss“ zitiert die iranische Nachrichtenagentur MehrNews am 2. Januar 2024 Al Jazeera. [Anmerkung: Die Huthi bezeichnen sich selbst als Ansar Allah (Helfer Allahs).]

The Houthis know that they have the protection of their Iranian supporter behind them. During his meeting with Mohammad Abdul Salam, spokesman and chief negotiator of the Yemeni Government of National Salvation on January 1, 2024 in Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian reiterated Iran's support for peace in Yemen.

In addition to these political formulas, Tehran supports its support financially and with military equipment.

Den Huthi gelingt es seit 2015 sich gegen die von der Staatengemeinschaft anerkannte jemenitische Regierung aufzustellen und die von Saudi-Arabien geschmiedete ‚Koalition‘ von einer Besetzung ‚ihres‘ Territoriums abzuhalten. Sie ticken nicht nach einer wertebasierten Ordnung und funktionieren nicht nach unseren Begriffen freiheitlichen Handelns. Ihre Aversion gegenüber dem Westen, insbesondere gegen die von ihnen wahrgenommene Führungsmacht USA trifft auf innigen Hass gegen Israel und seine Unterstützer.

Cracking open these motivational structures requires more than rhetoric.

In this respect, the question arises again as to what the Western alliance's next step in the defense of our values ​​will be, using the concrete example of free trade routes through the Red Sea.

Will the next attack be a casus belli? Doesn't sound convincing to our peace-loving understanding. In Germany in particular, the overall situation and not even the attack on a ship belonging to a German shipping company caused any particular concern. The incident last Sunday with the attempted takeover of a merchant ship from a neighboring country with units from a NATO partner being fired upon also had no lasting response in Germany. This makes the preoccupation with the question of how we will position ourselves if a coalition warship, let alone one of our NATO partners, is hit by a missile seem all the more virulent?

Potential crisis hits Germany (in hibernation)

The discussion in Germany avoids this consideration. There is cautious reluctance about possible participation in the maritime coalition around “Operation Prosperity Guardian”. In contrast, the New York Times reports on the deliberations between London and Washington, including the use of special forces and air strikes.

The tense situation in the Red Sea has not yet reached general awareness. The extension of trading routes only plays a role in stock market news. Further tightening has the potential to affect more than just container traffic between Asia and (Western) Europe.

This once again reveals Berlin's paradoxical attitude. Here is the “clear message,” according to the text of the January 3rd statement. On the other hand, there is no broad discussion about its implications. The message to the inside is missing!

It remains to be seen when the Houthis will change their previous behavior and take offensive action against units of the US Navy and possibly also the coalition.

Hans Uwe Mergener