Danger of Ukrainian drone attacks as a reason for the withdrawal of a Russian naval task force from the Baltic Sea?
Now the reason for the departure of three warships from the Russian Navy's Northern Fleet from the Baltic Sea before St. Petersburg Navy Day, which surprised Western observers, is now official. The main naval parade, which takes place annually in St. Petersburg in honor of Russian Navy Day, will be smaller this year. This is reported by the Russian daily newspaper Novye Izvestia, citing information from the city administration of St. Petersburg, on its online presence on the morning of July 18, 2024 (For the first time in seven years, the main naval parade in Kronstadt was canceled – Novye Izvestia – News from Russia and the World Today (newizv.ru).
The measure could be seen in connection with a finding by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).As reported by us,The nuclear-powered anti-submarine submarine “Tambov” (Victor III class), the destroyer “Admiral Levchenko” of the Udaloy class and the landing ship “Ivan Gren” left the Baltic Sea on July 14, although their participation in the parade was canceled Day of the Russian Navy was announced in St. Petersburg.
In its July 16 assessment of the Russian war in Ukraine, the Washington think tank states: “Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia are putting further pressure on the Russian air defense umbrella and forcing the Russian military leadership to prioritize limited air defense assets to cover what they see as to use high-quality goals.”
According to an analysis of satellite images from May 6, seven medium-range air defense systems are concentrated around the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Novgorod Oblast, which indicates gaps in the long-range air defense. On the other hand, according to the ISW, the Russian military does not have the necessary air defense systems to protect all critical facilities in western Russia.
The fire at a fuel terminal in Ust-Luga, approximately 110 kilometers west of St. Petersburg, hit the headlines in January 2024. The cause is said to have been a Ukrainian drone attack. If this is true, St. Petersburg would also be reachable by Ukrainian drones. Both cities are approximately 1,035 kilometers from Kiev.
Hinzu kommt, dass die Ukraine imstande zu sein scheint, erfolgreich gegen russische Luftverteidigungsstellungen vorzugehen. So soll kürzlich eine komplette S-300 Batterie in der Oblast Donezk ausgeschaltet worden sein.
Against this background and taking into account the ISW's assessment of the situation, a reassessment of the security situation by Russian services can be explained. This probably led to a change in the conduct of the naval birthday parade, which in the past always took place in the presence of President Vladimir Putin.
According to Novye Izvestia, for the first time in seven years the parade will not take place at the usual Kronstadt roadstead. Twelve smaller units are to sail the Neva in parade formation. Other naval units, including submarines, should be located close to the center of St. Petersburg and be available for tours. The participation of flying units was also reduced. The involvement of warships from China is still assumed. The Algerian naval training ship “La Summam” was also announced in previous publications.
According to Novye Istvestia, the Kremlin has not yet decided on the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In contrast, Defense Minister Andrei Beloussov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, Admiral Alexander Moiseyev, are scheduled to take part.
In St. Petersburg, preparations for the naval parade have so far gone as usual. Local media such as the online platform fontanka.ru report changed bridge opening times due to test installations, indicating 'business as usual'. The photo series features the units “Grad” and “Naro Fominsk” of the Buyan-M class, the “Sovetsk” of the Karakurt class, the minesweeper “Aleksandr Obukhov” of the Alexandrit class, patrol boats (including the “Nakhimovets” of the Grachonok class), landing craft and other small units can be identified. There is also a Steregushchiy-class corvette “Boikiy”, the new icebreaker “Ivan Papanin” and the submarine “Kronstadt” on site.
The “Kronstadt” B 868, a conventional Lada-class submarine (Project 677) that will enter service in January 2024, will be demonstrated. The “Ivan Papanin” is the lead ship in a new series of armed icebreakers and is currently being tested.
Navy Day is a national holiday in the Russian Federation, traditionally celebrated on the last Sunday in July, honoring the sailors of the Russian Navy and its special forces. In 2024 it will be celebrated on July 28th. After Victory Day on May 9, Russian Navy Day (День Военно-Морского Флота) is considered the second largest military holiday in Russia. The central celebrations have been taking place in St. Petersburg since 2017 as a fleet parade of ships and flying units from the Baltic, Black Sea, Northern and Pacific Fleets and the Caspian Flotilla. Events are also held at other naval bases. Navy Day was originally established in 1696 and abolished by the Soviet Union in 1980. President Putin revived it.
Hans Uwe Mergener and Michael Nitz
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