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In November 2021, Russia had around 100,000 soldiers deployed on its border with Ukraine, once again creating a powerful threat against the neighboring country. Should a military invasion of Ukraine be prepared? On November 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that NATO military deployments to Ukraine would cross a red line. But beyond the deployment of a limited number of military advisors – which were done by NATO countries, i.e. bilaterally – this was not and is not on the NATO agenda at all.

Simultaneously with the threatening backdrop, on December 17 Putin presented two draft treaties that the USA and the other NATO member states would have to sign immediately. It not only called for new security guarantees against a further eastward expansion of NATO and the admission of Ukraine “and other states” into the western alliance, but essentially for a complete revision of the previous European security order. Numerous treaties, including those signed by the former Soviet Union and Russia itself, were affected. The demands also include recognition of an exclusive Russian sphere of influence that stretches from Central Asia across the Caspian Sea to Eastern Europe. In doing so, Putin substantiated his dissatisfaction with the European security order, as he had already expressed at the 2007 Munich Security Conference.

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